Tech Reports

ULCS-02-007

Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis

Peter McBurney and Simon Parsons

Abstract

Scenario analysis is often used to identify possible chance events. However, no formal, computational theory yet exists for scenario analysis. In this paper, we commence development of such a theory by defining a scenario in an argumentation context, and by considering the question of when two scenarios are the same.

Keywords: Argumentation, Chance discovery, Ensembles, Forecasting, Scenarios.

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